Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 7.0 | 13.2% | 67 | 0.58% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 7.0 | 16.8% | 85 | 0.62% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 7.7 | 17.4% | 88 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 7.0 | 16.6% | 84 | 0.62% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 6.3 | 12.4% | 63 | 0.6% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 4.0 | 9.7% | 49 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 4.6 | 9.5% | 48 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.9 | 4.5% | 23 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 48 | 45.4 | 100% | 507 | 0.48% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | 15094 | 61489 | 512 | 125 | 574 |
| Oct 17 | 15134 | 61591 | 513 | 125 | 549 |
| Oct 18 | 15164 | 61637 | 514 | 125 | 514 |
| Oct 19 | 15199 | 61693 | 516 | 126 | 483 |
| Oct 20 | 15246 | 61780 | 516 | 126 | 468 |
| Oct 21 | 15316 | 61884 | 517 | 126 | 538 |
| Oct 22 | 15364 | 61992 | 519 | 126 | 507 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | 10282 | 36080 | 424 | 112 | 410 |
| Oct 17 | 10312 | 36143 | 424 | 112 | 362 |
| Oct 18 | 10327 | 36160 | 425 | 112 | 327 |
| Oct 19 | 10352 | 36183 | 433 | 112 | 316 |
| Oct 20 | 10365 | 36226 | 437 | 112 | 309 |
| Oct 21 | 10398 | 36263 | 438 | 113 | 318 |
| Oct 22 | 10416 | 36321 | 438 | 113 | 281 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.6 | 12.5% | 35 | 0.45% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 3.1 | 13.5% | 38 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 2.6 | 10.3% | 29 | 0.41% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.9 | 14.6% | 41 | 0.49% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 4.1 | 17.8% | 50 | 0.64% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 3.1 | 13.9% | 39 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.1 | 11.7% | 33 | 0.39% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.7 | 5.7% | 16 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 18 | 24.3 | 100% | 281 | 0.43% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | 7870 | 23972 | 382 | 90 | 297 |
| Oct 17 | 7886 | 23991 | 382 | 90 | 257 |
| Oct 18 | 7906 | 24010 | 382 | 90 | 240 |
| Oct 19 | 7913 | 24024 | 382 | 90 | 196 |
| Oct 20 | 7945 | 24067 | 382 | 91 | 209 |
| Oct 21 | 7975 | 24101 | 384 | 91 | 220 |
| Oct 22 | 8010 | 24144 | 387 | 91 | 245 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 2.4 | 8.6% | 21 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 3.9 | 15.9% | 39 | 0.72% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.9 | 8.2% | 20 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 2.0 | 10.6% | 26 | 0.48% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 3.7 | 14.3% | 35 | 0.7% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 2.7 | 13.9% | 34 | 0.5% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.0 | 13.1% | 32 | 0.51% |
| 70+ | 7 | 3.4 | 15.5% | 38 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 35 | 23.0 | 100% | 245 | 0.54% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | 15907 | 70360 | 640 | 107 | 402 |
| Oct 17 | 15953 | 70466 | 641 | 107 | 397 |
| Oct 18 | 15980 | 70565 | 643 | 107 | 375 |
| Oct 19 | 15987 | 70692 | 643 | 107 | 337 |
| Oct 20 | 16051 | 70872 | 645 | 107 | 380 |
| Oct 21 | 16092 | 70998 | 646 | 108 | 389 |
| Oct 22 | 16130 | 71169 | 648 | 108 | 379 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 5.4 | 13.7% | 52 | 0.44% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 6.9 | 16.9% | 64 | 0.39% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 4.6 | 12.9% | 49 | 0.23% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 5.7 | 16.4% | 62 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 4.9 | 13.7% | 52 | 0.38% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.7 | 8.4% | 32 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 2.7 | 7.4% | 28 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 2 | 4.0 | 10.6% | 40 | 0.31% |
| All ages | 38 | 36.9 | 100% | 379 | 0.32% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | 55190 | 417978 | 1904 | 341 | 1297 |
| Oct 17 | 55240 | 418535 | 1906 | 341 | 1229 |
| Oct 18 | 55355 | 418876 | 1911 | 342 | 1172 |
| Oct 19 | 55412 | 419205 | 1916 | 344 | 1062 |
| Oct 20 | 55483 | 419840 | 1921 | 345 | 1065 |
| Oct 21 | 55597 | 420588 | 1907 | 345 | 1127 |
| Oct 22 | 55687 | 421472 | 1916 | 345 | 988 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 15 | 13.3 | 13.9% | 137 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 9.9 | 13.4% | 132 | 0.19% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 13.9 | 17.5% | 173 | 0.17% |
| 30-39 | 20 | 15.0 | 16.9% | 167 | 0.22% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 11.6 | 13.3% | 131 | 0.2% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 9.0 | 9.9% | 98 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 6.3 | 7% | 69 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 2 | 6.7 | 8.2% | 81 | 0.16% |
| All ages | 90 | 85.6 | 100% | 988 | 0.18% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | 766566 | 3467237 | 41002 | 8249 | 23734 |
| Oct 17 | 767602 | 3471871 | 41071 | 8250 | 21800 |
| Oct 18 | 769212 | 3475148 | 41144 | 8251 | 20358 |
| Oct 19 | 770808 | 3479720 | 41299 | 8267 | 19124 |
| Oct 20 | 772918 | 3486673 | 41441 | 8293 | 20110 |
| Oct 21 | 775142 | 3494107 | 41524 | 8312 | 21088 |
| Oct 22 | 777244 | 3501652 | 41659 | 8342 | 20389 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 291 | 231.1 | 11.7% | 2393 | 0.37% |
| 10-19 | 382 | 326.6 | 18.2% | 3701 | 0.49% |
| 20-29 | 259 | 215.0 | 11.9% | 2423 | 0.32% |
| 30-39 | 316 | 282.4 | 15.1% | 3086 | 0.41% |
| 40-49 | 260 | 241.6 | 13.1% | 2661 | 0.38% |
| 50-59 | 230 | 213.6 | 11.8% | 2397 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 190 | 172.6 | 9.5% | 1942 | 0.26% |
| 70+ | 174 | 160.6 | 8.8% | 1786 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 2102 | 1843.4 | 100% | 20389 | 0.35% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-11-14 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 8049"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges